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Игры Будущего 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
Pyw · 13 games
62%
Puck
Pucksignature
Setsu · 12 games
75%
Luna
Luna
shiro · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niu · 11 games
45%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
y` · 11 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
niu · 11 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Setsu · 9 games
56%
Muerta
Muertasignature
shiro · 9 games
67%

Xtreme Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 6 games
100%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 6 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
XinQ · 5 games
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Xxs · 5 games
100%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Xxs · 4 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
XinQ · 4 games
100%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
XinQ · 4 games
100%
Techies
Techies
Dy · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
357 picks · 312 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
324 picks · 302 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
319 picks · 485 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
265 picks · 368 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
249 picks · 457 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
247 picks · 312 bans
56%
Techies
Techies
247 picks · 165 bans
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
243 picks · 139 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total65% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:29
LGD Gaming 41%Xtreme Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 42:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenshiro
52% · 74 games49% · 55 games
LinaXm
Lina
Bristleback
Bristlebackniu
45% · 25 games51% · 114 games
SvenAme
Sven
Pangolier
PangolierSetsu
53% · 154 games50% · 76 games
BrewmasterXxs
Brewmaster
Lion
LionPyw
53% · 128 games49% · 133 games
HoodwinkXinQ
Hoodwink
Disruptor
Disruptory`
47% · 125 games47% · 128 games
Crystal MaidenDy
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct17:32
LGD Gaming 42%Xtreme Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 38:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenshiro
48% · 80 games50% · 73 games
MedusaAme
Medusa
Puck
PuckSetsu
53% · 126 games58% · 27 games
SniperXm
Sniper
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerniu
48% · 38 games53% · 168 games
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
Centaur Warrunner
Phoenix
Phoenixy`
46% · 140 games48% · 91 game
Crystal MaidenDy
Crystal Maiden
Tusk
TuskPyw
43% · 100 games56% · 125 games
LionXinQ
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 65%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2