Игры Будущего 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questloss 0:2series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PSG Quest
Rubick
OmaR · 17 games
Earthshakeroften banned
No!ob · 15 games
Lionsignature
OmaR · 14 games
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 14 games
Enchantressoften banned
Kaori · 13 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
TA2000 · 13 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Kaori · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 12 games
BOOM Esports
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 12 games
Phoenixoften banned
Panda · 10 games
Tidehunteroften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
Dawnbreaker
Ws · 8 games
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 8 games
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 7 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 6 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Panda · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
361 picks · 308 bans
Centaur Warrunner
326 picks · 500 bans
Vengeful Spirit
323 picks · 303 bans
Pangolier
267 picks · 369 bans
Magnus
251 picks · 463 bans
Luna
246 picks · 226 bans
Mars
245 picks · 308 bans
Techies
244 picks · 164 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:29
PSG Quest 60%BOOM Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 44:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MeepoTA2000
TerrorbladePakazs
DoomMalik
Primal BeastILICH-
TinyNo!ob
UndyingPanda
TechiesOmaR
Vengeful SpiritDukalis
Game 2prediction missed11:21
PSG Quest 59%BOOM Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 28:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DawnbreakerMalik
MorphlingPakazs
PangolierNo!ob
Centaur WarrunnerILICH-
Faceless VoidTA2000
TechiesPanda
EnchantressDukalis
HoodwinkOmaR
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 68%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2