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Игры Будущего 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Azure Rayloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
XinQ · 5 games
100%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 5 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Xxs · 4 games
100%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Xxs · 4 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 4 games
100%
Techies
Techies
Dy · 4 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Dy · 3 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
XinQ · 3 games
67%

Azure Ray

Luna
Lunasignature
lou · 23 games
61%
Lion
Lion
fy · 19 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Faith_bian · 18 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 16 games
81%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 16 games
94%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
fy · 15 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
天命 · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
362 picks · 308 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
327 picks · 504 bans
59%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
324 picks · 302 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
268 picks · 370 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
251 picks · 461 bans
56%
Luna
Luna
247 picks · 227 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
244 picks · 306 bans
56%
Techies
Techies
244 picks · 161 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 66%
Hero pool strength53% Azure Ray
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total53% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:26
Xtreme Gaming 50%Azure Ray 50%
The model gave 50% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 36:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordAme
57% · 69 games40% · 24 games
Outworld DestroyerOri
Outworld Destroyer
Puck
PuckXm
60% · 145 games54% · 105 games
Alchemistlou
Alchemist
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXxs
49% · 140 games44% · 163 games
MagnusFaith_bian
Magnus
Tiny
TinyXinQ
54% · 168 games42% · 141 game
Hoodwinkfy
Hoodwink
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernDy
44% · 46 games50% · 135 games
Pugna天命
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct27:11
Xtreme Gaming 51%Azure Ray 49%
The model gave 51% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 33:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaXm
43% · 79 games49% · 107 games
Alchemistlou
Alchemist
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerAme
38% · 91 game56% · 188 games
DoomFaith_bian
Doom
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
52% · 203 games55% · 158 games
Storm SpiritOri
Storm Spirit
Mirana
MiranaXinQ
53% · 272 games52% · 126 games
Grimstrokefy
Grimstroke
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritDy
54% · 217 games46% · 283 games
Rubick天命
Rubick
Game 3prediction missed34:17
Xtreme Gaming 50%Azure Ray 50%
The model gave 50% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 43:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerAme
49% · 26 games55% · 16 games
Arc Wardenlou
Arc Warden
Mars
MarsXxs
50% · 104 games64% · 12 games
DazzleOri
Dazzle
Void Spirit
Void SpiritXm
52% · 62 games48% · 113 games
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonXinQ
46% · 85 games55% · 137 games
Tinyfy
Tiny
Death Prophet
Death ProphetDy
41% · 95 games52% · 94 games
Mirana天命
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 53%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3