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Игры Будущего 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
Pyw · 13 games
62%
Luna
Luna
shiro · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niu · 11 games
45%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
y` · 11 games
64%
Puck
Pucksignature
Setsu · 11 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Setsu · 9 games
56%
Muerta
Muertasignature
shiro · 9 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 9 games
56%

Neon Esports

Mars
Marsoften banned
JG · 13 games
46%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Bombi · 8 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ken · 8 games
38%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 8 games
25%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Bombi · 7 games
43%
Puck
Pucksignature
Ken · 7 games
71%
Techies
Techiessignature
Bombi · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
361 picks · 308 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
328 picks · 507 bans
59%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
323 picks · 302 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
269 picks · 371 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
251 picks · 459 bans
56%
Luna
Luna
249 picks · 227 bans
49%
Techies
Techies
243 picks · 160 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
242 picks · 306 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:22
LGD Gaming 66%Neon Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 42:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenshiro
56% · 107 games54% · 239 games
Ember SpiritKen
Ember Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerSetsu
52% · 91 game44% · 164 games
Primal BeastJG
Primal Beast
Mars
Marsniu
43% · 114 games43% · 114 games
HoodwinkBombi
Hoodwink
Mirana
MiranaPyw
65% · 124 games
Enigma
Enigmay`
50% · 81 game
Game 2prediction correct35:17
LGD Gaming 62%Neon Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 36:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSetsu
46% · 111 games57% · 167 games
PuckKen
Puck
Slark
Slarkshiro
53% · 106 games50% · 153 games
MagnusJG
Magnus
Mars
Marsniu
49% · 103 games51% · 202 games
BatriderBombi
Batrider
Tusk
TuskPyw
38% · 115 games
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maideny`
49% · 87 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 76%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2