DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 27 games
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 27 games
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 25 games
Tinysignature
Skiter · 25 games
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
Marsoften banned
ATF · 24 games
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 22 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 22 games
Tundra Esports
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 35 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 33 games
Batridersignature
33 · 30 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 30 games
Tinysignature
bzm · 29 games
Beastmasteroften banned
bzm · 27 games
Timbersawoften banned
33 · 27 games
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 26 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
538 picks · 326 bans
Phoenix
494 picks · 585 bans
Tiny
432 picks · 359 bans
Rubick
417 picks · 225 bans
Jakiro
357 picks · 260 bans
Pangolier
341 picks · 469 bans
Puck
334 picks · 862 bans
Beastmaster
329 picks · 836 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Team Falcons
Head-to-head6 – 3
Model total64% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:21
Team Falcons 60%Tundra Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 45:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingMalr1ne
Phantom AssassinPure~
WindrangerSkiter
Puckbzm
TidehunterATF
Doom33
LichSneyking
RubickAri
LionCr1t-
SilencerWhitemon
Game 2prediction correct43:30
Team Falcons 56%Tundra Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 59:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawATF
Tinkerbzm
LifestealerSkiter
WindrangerPure~
SlardarMalr1ne
Sand King33
LichSneyking
Dark WillowAri
LionCr1t-
Ancient ApparitionWhitemon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 64%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2