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ESSENCE II · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 38 games
68%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 34 games
68%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 30 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 28 games
64%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 27 games
70%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Boxi · 24 games
54%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
miCKe · 24 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 23 games
61%

Team Falcons

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Cr1t- · 31 game
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Skiter · 31 game
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 23 games
43%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Cr1t- · 22 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
68%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 21 game
62%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
62%
Razor
Razor
ATF · 20 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
517 picks · 364 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
372 picks · 657 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
363 picks · 206 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
329 picks · 353 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
328 picks · 367 bans
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 446 bans
55%
Windranger
Windranger
312 picks · 233 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
295 picks · 421 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 68%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head5 – 8
Model total58% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:20
Team Liquid 46%Team Falcons 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 31:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinymiCKe
48% · 330 games44% · 198 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Invoker
InvokerNisha
57% · 134 games52% · 270 games
Centaur WarrunnerMalr1ne
Centaur Warrunner
Doom
DoomAce
51% · 175 games54% · 21 game
Vengeful SpiritSkiter
Vengeful Spirit
Mirana
MiranatOfu
59% · 67 games44% · 127 games
EnchantressSneyking
Enchantress
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
47% · 150 games49% · 240 games
ClockwerkCr1t-
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct18:37
Team Liquid 44%Team Falcons 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 42:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNisha
54% · 270 games49% · 177 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Spectre
SpectremiCKe
50% · 16 games46% · 186 games
Primal BeastMalr1ne
Primal Beast
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAce
51% · 223 games54% · 82 games
AlchemistSkiter
Alchemist
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctortOfu
47% · 39 games48% · 146 games
EnchantressCr1t-
Enchantress
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBoxi
48% · 167 games51% · 124 games
UndyingSneyking
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 58%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2