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European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninja Penguinswin 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SIBE Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ninja Penguins

Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Copy · 10 games
40%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
MiLAN · 8 games
25%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Lowskill · 7 games
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MiLAN · 6 games
67%
Lion
Lion
MiLAN · 5 games
80%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Corrupted · 5 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Corrupted · 5 games
40%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Lowskill · 5 games
60%

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 19 games
26%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
emptiness · 14 games
79%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
klassnokruto · 13 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
erase · 12 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
klassnokruto · 12 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ряф^^ · 11 games
36%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ряф^^ · 11 games
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Rein · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
370 picks · 568 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
332 picks · 284 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
327 picks · 274 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
316 picks · 464 bans
49%
Magnus
Magnus
288 picks · 465 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
288 picks · 413 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
283 picks · 460 bans
52%
Faceless Void
Faceless Void
280 picks · 687 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 47%
Hero pool strength50% Ninja Penguins
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Ninja Penguins
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:43
Ninja Penguins 54%SIBE Team 46%
The model gave 54% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 42:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaLowskill
49% · 96 games58% · 105 games
Slarknesfeer
Slark
Pudge
PudgeCorrupted
45% · 60 games48% · 305 games
Pangolierряф^^
Pangolier
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritCopy
43% · 259 games61% · 68 games
ChenRein
Chen
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMiLAN
50% · 184 games46% · 121 game
Hoodwinksunset
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct35:26
Ninja Penguins 59%SIBE Team 41%
The model gave 59% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 43:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordLowskill
51% · 96 games49% · 134 games
Morphlingnesfeer
Morphling
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritCopy
53% · 324 games50% · 221 game
Pangolierряф^^
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
51% · 152 games42% · 245 games
Rubicksunset
Rubick
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritMiLAN
54% · 146 games49% · 118 games
SnapfireRein
Snapfire
Game 3prediction correct32:38
Ninja Penguins 57%SIBE Team 43%
The model gave 57% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 47:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingLowskill
52% · 194 games51% · 118 games
Lunanesfeer
Luna
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCopy
45% · 80 games53% · 249 games
Batriderряф^^
Batrider
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMiLAN
55% · 195 games55% · 135 games
Vengeful SpiritRein
Vengeful Spirit
Magnus
MagnusCorrupted
48% · 160 games41% · 127 games
Shadow Demonsunset
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteNinja Penguins · 62%
Series resultNinja Penguins 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3