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European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tickleswin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
KZ TEAMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tickles

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 28 games
71%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 26 games
62%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 25 games
72%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ulnit · 16 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Dukalis · 16 games
44%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
NARMAN · 15 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Force · 14 games
64%
Luna
Luna
Ulnit · 14 games
43%

KZ TEAM

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
SsaSpartan · 20 games
60%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 18 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 17 games
35%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Astral · 16 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Astral · 16 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
SsaSpartan · 15 games
47%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
SsaSpartan · 15 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
SkyLark · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
370 picks · 565 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
332 picks · 284 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
326 picks · 274 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
316 picks · 464 bans
49%
Magnus
Magnus
287 picks · 463 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
286 picks · 413 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
281 picks · 460 bans
52%
Faceless Void
Faceless Void
278 picks · 687 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% Team Tickles
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total55% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:25
Team Tickles 53%KZ TEAM 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 38:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaUlnit
51% · 73 games59% · 228 games
Faceless VoidOtaker
Faceless Void
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
46% · 174 games54% · 172 games
PuckSupream^
Puck
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNARMAN
53% · 211 games46% · 116 games
KunkkaSkyLark
Kunkka
Magnus
MagnusForce
45% · 155 games46% · 144 games
HoodwinkAstral
Hoodwink
Techies
TechiesImmersion
50% · 161 game48% · 114 games
GrimstrokeSsaSpartan
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction missed13:38
Team Tickles 51%KZ TEAM 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 35:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death ProphetLorenof
55% · 106 games49% · 44 games
Lone DruidOtaker
Lone Druid
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidUlnit
46% · 165 games49% · 227 games
TimbersawSkyLark
Timbersaw
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightForce
50% · 81 game49% · 311 games
PangolierSupream^
Pangolier
Techies
TechiesNARMAN
53% · 202 games44% · 92 games
GrimstrokeAstral
Grimstroke
Pugna
PugnaImmersion
53% · 189 games52% · 69 games
OracleSsaSpartan
Oracle
Game 3prediction correct36:25
Team Tickles 52%KZ TEAM 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 41:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaUlnit
59% · 81 game56% · 41 game
MeepoSupream^
Meepo
Pangolier
PangolierLorenof
48% · 217 games51% · 148 games
Dragon KnightSkyLark
Dragon Knight
Enchantress
EnchantressNARMAN
45% · 197 games50% · 101 game
DawnbreakerOtaker
Dawnbreaker
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritForce
48% · 129 games47% · 149 games
HoodwinkAstral
Hoodwink
Techies
TechiesImmersion
50% · 219 games52% · 404 games
BatriderSsaSpartan
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 55%
Series resultTeam Tickles 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3