NS Team vs Stray Team — prediction BSB 13 · Dota 2

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BetBoom Streamers Battle 13 · BO3

result vs prediction

NS Teamloss 1:2

series probability

44%56%

probability at match start · final 1:2

Stray Teamwin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

NS Team

No games played over 6 months.

Stray Team

Shadow Shaman

Goodoq · 3 games

67%

Earthshaker

Stray · 2 games

50%

Legion Commander

DkFogas · 2 games

50%

Nature's Prophetoften banned

Retsu · 2 games

50%

Nyx Assassin

Goodoq · 2 games

Silencer

Vovapain · 2 games

50%

Tiny

DkFogas · 2 games

50%

Tusk

Goodoq · 2 games

50%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

541 picks · 327 bans

55%

Phoenix

499 picks · 589 bans

50%

Tiny

435 picks · 362 bans

51%

Rubick

415 picks · 225 bans

48%

Jakiro

363 picks · 266 bans

48%

Pangolier

340 picks · 469 bans

48%

Puck

339 picks · 873 bans

52%

Tusk

335 picks · 293 bans

55%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength51% Stray Team

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total56% Stray Team

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct28:42

NS Team 47%Stray Team 53%

The model gave 53% on Stray Team — the game was taken by Stray Team in 42:26.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo