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European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninja Penguinswin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ninja Penguins

Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Copy · 10 games
40%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
MiLAN · 8 games
25%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Lowskill · 7 games
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MiLAN · 6 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Lowskill · 5 games
60%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Corrupted · 4 games
25%
Lion
Lion
MiLAN · 4 games
75%
Luna
Luna
Lowskill · 4 games
50%

Natus Vincere Junior

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Riddys · 25 games
60%
Lion
Lion
Riddys · 24 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 23 games
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
pma · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 16 games
38%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 15 games
40%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
gotthejuice · 15 games
60%
Marci
Marcisignature
Daze · 15 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
359 picks · 555 bans
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
315 picks · 238 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
313 picks · 273 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
312 picks · 453 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
275 picks · 435 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
272 picks · 771 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
270 picks · 458 bans
52%
Faceless Void
Faceless Void
269 picks · 654 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total60% Ninja Penguins
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:31
Ninja Penguins 54%Natus Vincere Junior 46%
The model gave 54% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 50:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingLowskill
51% · 126 games45% · 90 games
Ursagotthejuice
Ursa
Pangolier
PangolierCopy
53% · 281 game52% · 161 game
Keeper of the LightNiku
Keeper of the Light
Magnus
MagnusCorrupted
53% · 156 games45% · 126 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Mirana
MiranaMiLAN
59% · 143 games40% · 237 games
SnapfireDaze
Snapfire
51% · 92 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct39:25
Ninja Penguins 57%Natus Vincere Junior 43%
The model gave 57% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 40:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingLowskill
56% · 171 game51% · 163 games
Morphlinggotthejuice
Morphling
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritCopy
52% · 223 games49% · 171 game
SnapfireNiku
Snapfire
Mars
MarsCorrupted
48% · 184 games54% · 113 games
Broodmotherpma
Broodmother
Lion
LionMiLAN
44% · 129 games46% · 124 games
Centaur WarrunnerDaze
Centaur Warrunner
51% · 136 games
PugnaRiddys
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteNinja Penguins · 60%
Series resultNinja Penguins 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2