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European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tickleswin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ninja Penguinsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tickles

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 27 games
70%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 25 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 24 games
71%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ulnit · 16 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Dukalis · 16 games
44%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
NARMAN · 15 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Force · 14 games
64%
Luna
Luna
Ulnit · 14 games
43%

Ninja Penguins

Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Copy · 10 games
40%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
MiLAN · 7 games
29%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Lowskill · 7 games
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MiLAN · 6 games
67%
Lion
Lion
MiLAN · 4 games
75%
Luna
Luna
Lowskill · 4 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Corrupted · 4 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Corrupted · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
358 picks · 548 bans
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
311 picks · 233 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
308 picks · 448 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
305 picks · 272 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
273 picks · 426 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
272 picks · 766 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
268 picks · 458 bans
52%
Faceless Void
Faceless Void
265 picks · 648 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% Team Tickles
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:17
Team Tickles 58%Ninja Penguins 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 47:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidUlnit
49% · 136 games54% · 50 games
Phantom LancerLowskill
Phantom Lancer
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightLorenof
54% · 208 games56% · 363 games
PangolierCopy
Pangolier
Magnus
MagnusForce
49% · 173 games52% · 154 games
Death ProphetCorrupted
Death Prophet
Enchantress
EnchantressNARMAN
47% · 315 games44% · 467 games
RubickMiLAN
Rubick
Phoenix
PhoenixImmersion
45% · 202 games
Game 2prediction correct40:20
Team Tickles 57%Ninja Penguins 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 29:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
51% · 249 games49% · 176 games
Naga SirenLowskill
Naga Siren
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterUlnit
52% · 84 games49% · 315 games
Storm SpiritCopy
Storm Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerForce
58% · 114 games46% · 171 game
EnigmaCorrupted
Enigma
Techies
TechiesImmersion
48% · 206 games47% · 160 games
Vengeful SpiritMiLAN
Vengeful Spirit
Clockwerk
ClockwerkNARMAN
52% · 169 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 60%
Series resultTeam Tickles 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2