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European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team NextUploss 0:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team NextUp

Batrider
Batridersignature
VaniLLl · 6 games
83%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 6 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Miyaoo · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
jesv · 4 games
50%
Juggernaut
Juggernaut
7jesu · 4 games
50%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Mirage · 4 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Petushara · 3 games
67%

Natus Vincere Junior

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Riddys · 25 games
60%
Lion
Lion
Riddys · 23 games
35%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 22 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
pma · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 16 games
38%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 15 games
40%
Marci
Marcisignature
Daze · 15 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 15 games
27%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
358 picks · 544 bans
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
310 picks · 233 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
306 picks · 448 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
303 picks · 272 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
273 picks · 425 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
271 picks · 764 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
268 picks · 458 bans
52%
Faceless Void
Faceless Void
264 picks · 646 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Team NextUp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:32
Team NextUp 47%Natus Vincere Junior 53%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 34:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling7jesu
50% · 147 games48% · 103 games
Ursagotthejuice
Ursa
Pangolier
PangolierMirage
50% · 208 games47% · 29 games
Meepopma
Meepo
Windranger
WindrangerMiyaoo
54% · 103 games49% · 220 games
TimbersawNiku
Timbersaw
Batrider
BatriderVaniLLl
55% · 177 games48% · 158 games
LionRiddys
Lion
46% · 125 games
HoodwinkDaze
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct11:47
Team NextUp 48%Natus Vincere Junior 52%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 32:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling7jesu
52% · 258 games41% · 156 games
Faceless Voidgotthejuice
Faceless Void
Puck
PuckMirage
52% · 175 games40% · 227 games
SnapfireNiku
Snapfire
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMiyaoo
49% · 96 games56% · 106 games
Dark Seerpma
Dark Seer
Clockwerk
ClockwerkVaniLLl
56% · 258 games53% · 193 games
BatriderDaze
Batrider
48% · 105 games
Crystal MaidenRiddys
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 56%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2