European Pro League Season 16 · BO1
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamloss 0:1series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Ninja Penguinswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MarsBet Team
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Mr. Luck · 23 games
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 21 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 13 games
Vengeful Spirit
LeBronDota · 11 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
LeBronDota · 10 games
Phoenixoften banned
LeBronDota · 10 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 9 games
Gyrocopter
Mitch · 9 games
Ninja Penguins
Primal Beastoften banned
Copy · 9 games
Vengeful Spirit
MiLAN · 7 games
Weaversignature
Lowskill · 6 games
Lion
MiLAN · 4 games
Magnusoften banned
Corrupted · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Corrupted · 4 games
Meepooften banned
Copy · 4 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
358 picks · 542 bans
Vengeful Spirit
309 picks · 232 bans
Phoenix
306 picks · 448 bans
Lion
302 picks · 271 bans
Magnus
273 picks · 425 bans
Nature's Prophet
269 picks · 764 bans
Grimstroke
268 picks · 458 bans
Faceless Void
264 picks · 645 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 64%
Hero pool strength55% Ninja Penguins
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total60% Ninja Penguins
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:39
MarsBet Team 44%Ninja Penguins 56%
The model gave 56% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 1:04:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightW1sh-
LunaLowskill
UrsaLukas
TimbersawCopy
WindrangerMr. Luck
Night StalkerCorrupted
TuskBignum
Nature's ProphetMiLAN
LionLeBronDota
Model check result
Model favoriteNinja Penguins · 60%
Series resultNinja Penguins 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1