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European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninja Penguinswin 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MarsBet Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ninja Penguins

Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Copy · 9 games
44%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
MiLAN · 7 games
29%
Lion
Lion
MiLAN · 4 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Corrupted · 4 games
25%
Meepo
Meepooften banned
Copy · 4 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
75%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
MiLAN · 4 games
75%
Alchemist
Alchemist
Lowskill · 3 games
33%

MarsBet Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 22 games
59%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
LeBronDota · 20 games
60%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 12 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
LeBronDota · 10 games
40%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
LeBronDota · 10 games
40%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Mitch · 9 games
44%
Lion
Lion
Bignum · 9 games
22%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
LeBronDota · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
355 picks · 538 bans
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
307 picks · 226 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
305 picks · 444 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
301 picks · 266 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
269 picks · 425 bans
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
266 picks · 458 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
265 picks · 761 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
261 picks · 381 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% Ninja Penguins
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total53% Ninja Penguins
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:26
Ninja Penguins 52%MarsBet Team 48%
The model gave 52% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 47:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidLowskill
47% · 179 games51% · 201 game
MorphlingLukas
Morphling
Death Prophet
Death ProphetCopy
52% · 160 games59% · 118 games
Dragon KnightW1sh-
Dragon Knight
Magnus
MagnusCorrupted
55% · 244 games46% · 153 games
Centaur WarrunnerMr. Luck
Centaur Warrunner
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMiLAN
48% · 262 games49% · 195 games
TechiesBignum
Techies
43% · 178 games
PhoenixLeBronDota
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct25:8
Ninja Penguins 52%MarsBet Team 48%
The model gave 52% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 22:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierCopy
49% · 440 games42% · 312 games
Ember SpiritW1sh-
Ember Spirit
Weaver
WeaverLowskill
51% · 77 games48% · 197 games
MorphlingLukas
Morphling
Tidehunter
TidehunterCorrupted
49% · 233 games47% · 166 games
TimbersawMr. Luck
Timbersaw
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMiLAN
52% · 324 games54% · 246 games
BatriderBignum
Batrider
57% · 153 games
Dark WillowLeBronDota
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct29:26
Ninja Penguins 53%MarsBet Team 47%
The model gave 53% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 46:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc Warden
Arc WardenCopy
54% · 27 games41% · 27 games
WindrangerLukas
Windranger
Weaver
WeaverLowskill
53% · 42 games48% · 36 games
TimbersawW1sh-
Timbersaw
Pudge
PudgeCorrupted
48% · 68 games43% · 30 games
Dragon KnightMr. Luck
Dragon Knight
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMiLAN
53% · 53 games54% · 58 games
EnchantressLeBronDota
Enchantress
51% · 39 games
TechiesBignum
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteNinja Penguins · 53%
Series resultNinja Penguins 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3