European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Kleeloss 1:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MarsBet Teamwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Klee
No games played over 6 months.
MarsBet Team
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 21 game
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 19 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 11 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
LeBronDota · 10 games
Gyrocopter
Mitch · 9 games
Vengeful Spirit
LeBronDota · 9 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 8 games
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
352 picks · 535 bans
Phoenix
304 picks · 441 bans
Vengeful Spirit
304 picks · 225 bans
Lion
300 picks · 264 bans
Magnus
268 picks · 424 bans
Grimstroke
266 picks · 458 bans
Nature's Prophet
264 picks · 757 bans
Pangolier
259 picks · 379 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 51%
Hero pool strength50% Team Klee
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total70% Team Klee
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:9
Team Klee 70%MarsBet Team 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Klee — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 27:42.
Game 2prediction missed30:18
Team Klee 70%MarsBet Team 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Klee — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 36:46.
Game 3prediction missed30:19
Team Klee 70%MarsBet Team 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Klee — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 43:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Klee · 70%
Series resultMarsBet Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3