European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team NextUpwin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Monteloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team NextUp
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
forcemajor · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Petushara · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
jesv · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 4 games
Juggernaut
7jesu · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Petushara · 3 games
Enchantressoften banned
jesv · 3 games
Monte
Vengeful Spirit
EcNart · 6 games
Hoodwink
QBFY · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Moonlight · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 4 games
Razoroften banned
Moonlight · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Moonlight · 4 games
Void Spirit
Moonlight · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
352 picks · 533 bans
Phoenix
304 picks · 439 bans
Vengeful Spirit
303 picks · 225 bans
Lion
300 picks · 264 bans
Magnus
268 picks · 423 bans
Grimstroke
266 picks · 458 bans
Nature's Prophet
263 picks · 757 bans
Pangolier
259 picks · 379 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 31%
Hero pool strength53% Team NextUp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Team NextUp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:8
Team NextUp 59%Monte 41%
The model gave 59% on Team NextUp — the game was taken by Team NextUp in 27:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorMiyaoo
LifestealerCrystallize
Lina7jesu
TimbersawInfernal
Ember SpiritMirage
Dragon KnightMoonlight
BatriderVaniLLl
Shadow DemonQBFY
48% · 233 games
Nature's ProphetEcNart
Game 2prediction correct36:22
Team NextUp 59%Monte 41%
The model gave 59% on Team NextUp — the game was taken by Team NextUp in 31:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainMirage
LunaCrystallize
Windranger7jesu
Death ProphetMoonlight
Dragon KnightMiyaoo
MarsInfernal
Vengeful SpiritVaniLLl
TechiesEcNart
45% · 95 games
Dark WillowQBFY
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam NextUp · 65%
Series resultTeam NextUp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2