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European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ninja Penguinswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 20 games
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
65%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
StoneBank · 16 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Dendi · 15 games
80%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 15 games
53%
Lion
Lion
CTOMAHEH1 · 15 games
27%
Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 13 games
38%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
StoneBank · 13 games
54%

Ninja Penguins

Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Copy · 9 games
44%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
MiLAN · 7 games
29%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Corrupted · 4 games
25%
Meepo
Meepooften banned
Copy · 4 games
50%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
MiLAN · 4 games
75%
Alchemist
Alchemist
Lowskill · 3 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Corrupted · 3 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Copy · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
352 picks · 531 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
304 picks · 438 bans
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
303 picks · 223 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
298 picks · 264 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
268 picks · 423 bans
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
266 picks · 458 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
263 picks · 755 bans
54%
Faceless Void
Faceless Void
258 picks · 640 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Ninja Penguins
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:32
B8 Esports 39%Ninja Penguins 61%
The model gave 61% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 38:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerFocus
54% · 55 games51% · 204 games
Naga SirenLowskill
Naga Siren
Timbersaw
TimbersawStoneBank
55% · 115 games52% · 89 games
RazorCopy
Razor
Pangolier
PangolierDendi
55% · 200 games45% · 103 games
PudgeCorrupted
Pudge
Enchantress
EnchantressMary_y
49% · 205 games44% · 242 games
LionMiLAN
Lion
Rubick
RubickCTOMAHEH1
47% · 308 games48% · 245 games
Crystal MaidenKaori
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct13:38
B8 Esports 40%Ninja Penguins 60%
The model gave 60% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 32:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slardar
SlardarStoneBank
47% · 33 games51% · 175 games
Dragon KnightCopy
Dragon Knight
Windranger
WindrangerFocus
61% · 68 games56% · 85 games
Troll WarlordLowskill
Troll Warlord
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDendi
48% · 257 games40% · 72 games
DawnbreakerCorrupted
Dawnbreaker
Enchantress
EnchantressMary_y
51% · 222 games48% · 214 games
Crystal MaidenKaori
Crystal Maiden
Techies
TechiesCTOMAHEH1
49% · 153 games45% · 187 games
LionMiLAN
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteNinja Penguins · 68%
Series resultNinja Penguins 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2