ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 3:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 3:2
BOOM Esportsloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 15 games
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 9 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
KJ · 9 games
Lion
Scofield · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 7 games
Tiny
Scofield · 7 games
Alchemist
K1 · 6 games
Marssignature
Davai · 6 games
BOOM Esports
Phoenixoften banned
Panda · 9 games
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 9 games
Tidehunteroften banned
ILICH- · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ws · 7 games
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 6 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Panda · 6 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ILICH- · 5 games
Luna
Pakazs · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
350 picks · 526 bans
Phoenix
301 picks · 438 bans
Vengeful Spirit
299 picks · 221 bans
Lion
296 picks · 262 bans
Magnus
266 picks · 419 bans
Grimstroke
265 picks · 458 bans
Nature's Prophet
261 picks · 754 bans
Faceless Void
257 picks · 636 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% Heroic
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total56% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:43
Heroic 55%BOOM Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Heroic — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 38:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo4nalog
SlarkPakazs
AbaddonK1
Centaur WarrunnerILICH-
PangolierDavai
Vengeful SpiritPanda
GyrocopterScofield
Winter WyvernKJ
Game 2prediction missed25:37
Heroic 54%BOOM Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Heroic — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 42:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerK1
Troll WarlordPakazs
Puck4nalog
Primal BeastILICH-
MarsDavai
Ancient ApparitionPanda
Vengeful SpiritScofield
PhoenixKJ
Game 3prediction correct30:17
Heroic 53%BOOM Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 40:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenK1
AlchemistPakazs
Zeus4nalog
SlardarILICH-
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
EnchantressPanda
Nature's ProphetKJ
LionScofield
Game 4prediction correct25:11
Heroic 53%BOOM Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 39:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerK1
SvenPakazs
DoomDavai
TimbersawILICH-
Death Prophet4nalog
GrimstrokePanda
LionScofield
Vengeful SpiritKJ
Game 5prediction correct21:13
Heroic 55%BOOM Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 35:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverK1
MorphlingPakazs
Dragon Knight4nalog
Primal BeastILICH-
MarsDavai
PhoenixPanda
Nature's ProphetKJ
GyrocopterScofield
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 56%
Series resultHeroic 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5