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European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tickleswin 2:1
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Monteloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tickles

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 26 games
69%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 24 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 22 games
68%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ulnit · 16 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Dukalis · 15 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Force · 13 games
62%
Luna
Luna
Ulnit · 13 games
46%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
NARMAN · 13 games
46%

Monte

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
EcNart · 6 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 5 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Moonlight · 4 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 4 games
50%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Moonlight · 4 games
25%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Moonlight · 4 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 3 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
347 picks · 515 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
299 picks · 438 bans
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
293 picks · 212 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
292 picks · 257 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
264 picks · 457 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
262 picks · 414 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
256 picks · 749 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
256 picks · 372 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 33%
Hero pool strength57% Team Tickles
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total85% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:33
Team Tickles 70%Monte 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Monte in 26:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
58% · 124 games56% · 41 game
Troll WarlordCrystallize
Troll Warlord
Luna
LunaUlnit
41% · 97 games43% · 84 games
Death ProphetMoonlight
Death Prophet
Visage
VisageForce
51% · 41 game43% · 117 games
Primal BeastInfernal
Primal Beast
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterNARMAN
44% · 42 games51% · 74 games
Dark WillowQBFY
Dark Willow
Io
IoImmortalFaith
61% · 63 games55% · 51 game
ChenEcNart
Chen
Game 2prediction correct26:9
Team Tickles 71%Monte 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 31:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaUlnit
48% · 78 games50% · 262 games
BeastmasterInfernal
Beastmaster
Puck
PuckLorenof
50% · 154 games55% · 61 game
Troll WarlordCrystallize
Troll Warlord
Magnus
MagnusForce
49% · 133 games55% · 179 games
Templar AssassinMoonlight
Templar Assassin
Clockwerk
ClockwerkImmortalFaith
49% · 187 games48% · 153 games
Shadow DemonQBFY
Shadow Demon
Pugna
PugnaNARMAN
47% · 156 games47% · 53 games
GyrocopterEcNart
Gyrocopter
Game 3prediction correct21:24
Team Tickles 72%Monte 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 37:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinLorenof
53% · 265 games48% · 190 games
Faceless VoidCrystallize
Faceless Void
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordUlnit
52% · 89 games49% · 173 games
TimbersawInfernal
Timbersaw
Dark Seer
Dark SeerForce
57% · 249 games48% · 200 games
Storm SpiritMoonlight
Storm Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritNARMAN
50% · 167 games43% · 422 games
RubickQBFY
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkImmortalFaith
56% · 429 games44% · 214 games
SnapfireEcNart
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 85%
Series resultTeam Tickles 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3