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European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamwin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
One Moveloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 15 games
27%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
klassnokruto · 13 games
62%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
emptiness · 13 games
77%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
klassnokruto · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
erase · 11 games
64%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ряф^^ · 11 games
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Rein · 10 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ряф^^ · 9 games
44%

One Move

Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 9 games
22%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 8 games
38%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
AfterLife · 7 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Ainkrad · 7 games
29%
Rubick
Rubick
Xakoda · 7 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 6 games
33%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Munkushi~ · 6 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Panto · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
345 picks · 514 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
297 picks · 438 bans
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
291 picks · 210 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
289 picks · 257 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
264 picks · 457 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
260 picks · 413 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
256 picks · 749 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
256 picks · 369 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 41%
Hero pool strength56% SIBE Team
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total55% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:36
SIBE Team 54%One Move 46%
The model gave 54% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by One Move in 35:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistnesfeer
56% · 63 games52% · 23 games
Outworld DestroyerSSS
Outworld Destroyer
Timbersaw
Timbersawряф^^
57% · 113 games42% · 41 game
Pudgechempik
Pudge
Phoenix
PhoenixRein
52% · 91 game50% · 165 games
TechiesXakoda
Techies
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersunset
50% · 81 game44% · 119 games
Lionqueezy
Lion
Game 2prediction correct26:10
SIBE Team 58%One Move 42%
The model gave 58% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 31:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
Slarknesfeer
61% · 112 games48% · 62 games
Queen of PainSSS
Queen of Pain
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinряф^^
55% · 137 games47% · 93 games
Tidehunterchempik
Tidehunter
Chen
ChenRein
64% · 69 games49% · 179 games
EnchantressXakoda
Enchantress
Lion
Lionsunset
40% · 117 games38% · 101 game
Hoodwinkqueezy
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction missed28:10
SIBE Team 50%One Move 50%
The model gave 50% on One Move — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 27:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunanesfeer
52% · 128 games49% · 262 games
TimbersawSSS
Timbersaw
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinряф^^
53% · 143 games53% · 176 games
Magnuschempik
Magnus
Pugna
PugnaRein
48% · 167 games51% · 175 games
Lionqueezy
Lion
Rubick
Rubicksunset
44% · 367 games50% · 192 games
PhoenixXakoda
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 55%
Series resultSIBE Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3