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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Earthshaker
Earthshaker
No!ob · 15 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
OmaR · 14 games
43%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
TA2000 · 13 games
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Kaori · 12 games
58%
Lion
Lion
OmaR · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 11 games
55%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Kaori · 10 games
30%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Kaori · 10 games
50%

Nigma Galaxy

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
KuroKy · 11 games
45%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KuroKy · 8 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fbz · 7 games
43%
Chen
Chenoften banned
KuroKy · 7 games
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
GH · 7 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
GH · 7 games
71%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
Miracle- · 6 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
rmN- · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
344 picks · 514 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
297 picks · 438 bans
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
291 picks · 210 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
288 picks · 257 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
264 picks · 457 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
260 picks · 413 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
256 picks · 368 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
255 picks · 748 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 61%
Hero pool strength55% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total78% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:14
PSG Quest 65%Nigma Galaxy 35%
The model gave 65% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 47:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaNo!ob
44% · 118 games50% · 88 games
ZeusSumaiL
Zeus
Morphling
MorphlingTA2000
50% · 115 games51% · 86 games
SvenMiracle-
Sven
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
49% · 122 games48% · 128 games
EnigmaFbz
Enigma
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetKaori
51% · 226 games67% · 79 games
ChenKuroKy
Chen
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
42% · 134 games49% · 334 games
TinyMatthew
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct33:33
PSG Quest 65%Nigma Galaxy 35%
The model gave 65% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 1:05:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidTA2000
59% · 141 game50% · 168 games
MarsFbz
Mars
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightNo!ob
58% · 178 games50% · 218 games
Storm SpiritSumaiL
Storm Spirit
Pudge
PudgeMalik
45% · 76 games54% · 140 games
SlarkMiracle-
Slark
Enchantress
EnchantressKaori
51% · 328 games40% · 193 games
SnapfireMatthew
Snapfire
Lion
LionOmaR
45% · 147 games48% · 151 game
Crystal MaidenKuroKy
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 78%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2