?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Azure Raywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
y` · 10 games
70%
Lion
Lionsignature
Pyw · 8 games
63%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
niu · 7 games
71%
Puck
Pucksignature
Setsu · 7 games
86%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
niu · 6 games
33%
Doom
Doomsignature
niu · 6 games
83%
Muerta
Muertasignature
pLAnet · 6 games
67%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
NothingToSay · 6 games
67%

Azure Ray

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 15 games
80%
Luna
Lunasignature
lou · 14 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 13 games
62%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 13 games
62%
Batrider
Batridersignature
天命 · 12 games
75%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Chalice · 12 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 10 games
80%
Lion
Lionsignature
fy · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
342 picks · 514 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
296 picks · 432 bans
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
287 picks · 209 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
286 picks · 252 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
264 picks · 457 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
257 picks · 409 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
255 picks · 367 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
254 picks · 746 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 75%
Hero pool strength52% Azure Ray
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total69% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:24
LGD Gaming 37%Azure Ray 63%
The model gave 63% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 22:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaSetsu
42% · 85 games50% · 92 games
Ursalou
Ursa
Weaver
Weavershiro
51% · 31 game44% · 65 games
ZeusOri
Zeus
Magnus
Magnusniu
50% · 197 games57% · 188 games
DoomFaith_bian
Doom
Tiny
TinyPyw
51% · 204 games52% · 235 games
Batriderfy
Batrider
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirity`
54% · 113 games47% · 50 games
Winter Wyvern天命
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct23:23
LGD Gaming 41%Azure Ray 59%
The model gave 59% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 33:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorshiro
50% · 72 games57% · 157 games
Lunalou
Luna
Timbersaw
Timbersawniu
52% · 190 games53% · 323 games
Storm SpiritOri
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierSetsu
46% · 270 games47% · 206 games
TidehunterFaith_bian
Tidehunter
Rubick
RubickPyw
45% · 361 game47% · 253 games
Lionfy
Lion
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirity`
43% · 143 games60% · 97 games
Elder Titan天命
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 69%
Series resultAzure Ray 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2