ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Estar Backswin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infinity Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Estar Backs
Muertaoften banned
Michael · 7 games
Vengeful Spirit
StingeR · 4 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Mnz · 3 games
Dark Willow
Michael · 3 games
Gyrocopter
Mnz · 3 games
Spectreoften banned
Mnz · 3 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
StingeR · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 2 games
Infinity Esports
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Kiri · 4 games
Doomoften banned
Oscar · 3 games
Rubick
Kiri · 3 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Mnz · 3 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Frank · 2 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Mnz · 2 games
Disruptor
Mjz · 2 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Genek · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
339 picks · 512 bans
Phoenix
293 picks · 434 bans
Vengeful Spirit
286 picks · 205 bans
Lion
285 picks · 247 bans
Grimstroke
266 picks · 456 bans
Pangolier
258 picks · 364 bans
Magnus
255 picks · 409 bans
Faceless Void
252 picks · 619 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:13
Estar Backs 51%Infinity Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 24:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaParker
Dragon KnightPiPi
MagnusFrank
TimbersawOscar
HoodwinkMichael
SpectreMnz
49% · 256 games
RubickGenek
50% · 69 games
DisruptorMjz
Game 2prediction correct50:18
Estar Backs 53%Infinity Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 31:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerParker
SvenMnz
BeastmasterFrank
KunkkaPiPi
Nature's ProphetMichael
TechiesGenek
43% · 161 game
TimbersawOscar
44% · 156 games
PhoenixMjz
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 54%
Series resultEstar Backs 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2