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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 14 games
64%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Puppey · 12 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 10 games
70%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
BOOM · 9 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
yamich · 9 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
MidOne · 9 games
78%
Lion
Lion
Ekki · 9 games
44%

Tundra Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Topson · 11 games
73%
Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 11 games
82%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Sneyking · 10 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Topson · 10 games
70%
Sven
Svensignature
Skiter · 10 games
70%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 9 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Whitemon · 9 games
44%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Topson · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
338 picks · 509 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
291 picks · 434 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
285 picks · 247 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
284 picks · 202 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
265 picks · 456 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
255 picks · 408 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
255 picks · 363 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
252 picks · 743 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Team Secret
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total66% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:27
Team Secret 40%Tundra Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidBOOM
42% · 53 games54% · 88 games
Naga SirenPure~
Naga Siren
Razor
RazorCrystallis
51% · 64 games54% · 83 games
Faceless VoidTopson
Faceless Void
Snapfire
SnapfirePuppey
43% · 294 games51% · 123 games
Death ProphetMinD_ContRoL
Death Prophet
Monkey King
Monkey KingEkki
56% · 169 games45% · 137 games
PhoenixWhitemon
Phoenix
53% · 149 games
Tiny9Class
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct44:50
Team Secret 39%Tundra Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 1:00:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingCrystallis
44% · 175 games51% · 158 games
PuckTopson
Puck
Timbersaw
TimbersawBOOM
53% · 157 games54% · 146 games
WindrangerPure~
Windranger
Venomancer
VenomancerPuppey
52% · 49 games53% · 178 games
Dark SeerMinD_ContRoL
Dark Seer
Rubick
RubickEkki
45% · 295 games52% · 95 games
Centaur Warrunner9Class
Centaur Warrunner
49% · 99 games
Vengeful SpiritWhitemon
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 66%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2