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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Winter Bearloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
KuroKy · 11 games
45%
Chen
Chenoften banned
KuroKy · 7 games
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
GH · 7 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
GH · 7 games
71%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
Miracle- · 6 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
rmN- · 6 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fbz · 6 games
33%

Winter Bear

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Stoic · 8 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 5 games
20%
Tiny
Tiny
Jeezy · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Stoic · 4 games
75%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Jeezy · 4 games
75%
Lion
Lion
Jeezy · 4 games
100%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Jeezy · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
337 picks · 506 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
292 picks · 434 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
283 picks · 245 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
278 picks · 198 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
265 picks · 456 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
255 picks · 357 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
254 picks · 401 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
252 picks · 735 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total68% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:13
Nigma Galaxy 60%Winter Bear 40%
The model gave 60% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 33:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerMiracle-
51% · 62 games54% · 203 games
PugnaJeezy
Pugna
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSumaiL
52% · 69 games46% · 153 games
Vengeful SpiritStoic
Vengeful Spirit
Mars
MarsFbz
52% · 69 games
Enchantress
EnchantressKuroKy
52% · 101 game
Tiny
TinyMatthew
43% · 55 games
Game 2prediction missed21:30
Nigma Galaxy 63%Winter Bear 37%
The model gave 63% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 37:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerMiracle-
57% · 61 game45% · 199 games
SnapfireJeezy
Snapfire
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSumaiL
58% · 75 games50% · 121 game
Vengeful SpiritStoic
Vengeful Spirit
Mars
MarsFbz
52% · 69 games
Enigma
EnigmaKuroKy
48% · 56 games
Pugna
PugnaMatthew
47% · 59 games
Game 3prediction correct33:23
Nigma Galaxy 58%Winter Bear 42%
The model gave 58% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 37:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaMiracle-
53% · 38 games46% · 140 games
Crystal MaidenJeezy
Crystal Maiden
Puck
PuckSumaiL
54% · 51 game49% · 163 games
Vengeful SpiritStoic
Vengeful Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFbz
50% · 57 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMatthew
56% · 46 games
Enchantress
EnchantressKuroKy
51% · 111 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 68%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3