?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 14 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 8 games
63%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
KJ · 8 games
75%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tiny
Scofield · 7 games
43%
Alchemist
Alchemist
K1 · 6 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 5 games
60%

BOOM Esports

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ILICH- · 8 games
38%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 8 games
38%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ws · 7 games
29%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 7 games
29%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 5 games
40%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Sacred · 5 games
60%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Mjz · 5 games
60%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
xNova · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
337 picks · 506 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
292 picks · 434 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
283 picks · 245 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
278 picks · 198 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
265 picks · 456 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
255 picks · 357 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
254 picks · 401 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
252 picks · 735 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 54%
Hero pool strength60% Heroic
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total55% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:10
Heroic 52%BOOM Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 29:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerK1
44% · 104 games53% · 73 games
SvenPakazs
Sven
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight4nalog
42% · 104 games53% · 181 game
DoomILICH-
Doom
Enigma
EnigmaDavai
50% · 105 games47% · 169 games
UndyingPanda
Undying
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKJ
60% · 55 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkScofield
50% · 55 games
Game 2prediction correct33:45
Heroic 52%BOOM Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 54:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordK1
43% · 44 games53% · 155 games
Monkey KingPakazs
Monkey King
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit4nalog
45% · 230 games56% · 68 games
RazorILICH-
Razor
Mars
MarsDavai
52% · 78 games56% · 236 games
BatriderPanda
Batrider
Hoodwink
HoodwinkScofield
39% · 63 games
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKJ
46% · 44 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 55%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2