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European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamloss 1:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team NextUpwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 15 games
27%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
klassnokruto · 13 games
62%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
emptiness · 12 games
83%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
klassnokruto · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
erase · 11 games
64%
Puck
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 10 games
60%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Rein · 10 games
60%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
nesfeer · 9 games
67%

Team NextUp

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
jesv · 4 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 4 games
50%
Juggernaut
Juggernaut
7jesu · 4 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
forcemajor · 3 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Petushara · 3 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
jesv · 3 games
0%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
7jesu · 3 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
forcemajor · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
337 picks · 505 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
292 picks · 431 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
283 picks · 244 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
278 picks · 196 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
264 picks · 456 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
255 picks · 356 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
254 picks · 400 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
252 picks · 735 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 36%
Hero pool strength55% SIBE Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:17
SIBE Team 59%Team NextUp 41%
The model gave 59% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 32:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritряф^^
51% · 254 games51% · 212 games
Morphling7jesu
Morphling
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidnesfeer
54% · 131 game49% · 120 games
LinaMirage
Lina
Chen
ChenRein
60% · 60 games42% · 150 games
MarsMiyaoo
Mars
Tiny
Tinysunset
49% · 178 games45% · 141 game
PugnaVaniLLl
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed21:29
SIBE Team 59%Team NextUp 41%
The model gave 59% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by Team NextUp in 46:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckряф^^
50% · 139 games47% · 190 games
Morphling7jesu
Morphling
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidnesfeer
46% · 143 games55% · 105 games
Dragon KnightMirage
Dragon Knight
Enchantress
EnchantressRein
46% · 193 games52% · 21 game
Winter WyvernMiyaoo
Winter Wyvern
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesunset
52% · 43 games54% · 202 games
BatriderVaniLLl
Batrider
Game 3prediction missed23:33
SIBE Team 55%Team NextUp 45%
The model gave 55% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by Team NextUp in 32:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancernesfeer
48% · 77 games51% · 196 games
Morphling7jesu
Morphling
Void Spirit
Void Spiritряф^^
46% · 102 games54% · 45 games
Dragon KnightMirage
Dragon Knight
Techies
TechiesRein
48% · 265 games54% · 88 games
MarsMiyaoo
Mars
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsunset
48% · 162 games51% · 277 games
BatriderVaniLLl
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 62%
Series resultTeam NextUp 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3