ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ninja Penguinsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 14 games
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Puppey · 12 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 10 games
Brewmastersignature
BOOM · 9 games
Invokersignature
MidOne · 9 games
Lion
Ekki · 9 games
Doomsignature
yamich · 8 games
Ninja Penguins
Primal Beastoften banned
Copy · 8 games
Vengeful Spirit
MiLAN · 6 games
Marsoften banned
Corrupted · 4 games
Meepooften banned
Copy · 4 games
Weaveroften banned
MiLAN · 4 games
Alchemist
Lowskill · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Corrupted · 3 games
Magnusoften banned
Corrupted · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
336 picks · 502 bans
Phoenix
292 picks · 431 bans
Lion
283 picks · 243 bans
Vengeful Spirit
275 picks · 195 bans
Grimstroke
263 picks · 455 bans
Pangolier
255 picks · 353 bans
Magnus
253 picks · 400 bans
Nature's Prophet
252 picks · 735 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 64%
Hero pool strength56% Team Secret
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:10
Team Secret 60%Ninja Penguins 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 24:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawBOOM
Troll WarlordLowskill
SlarkCrystallis
Storm SpiritCopy
ChenPuppey
RazorCorrupted
BatriderEkki
Vengeful SpiritAlexxo
Game 2prediction correct50:28
Team Secret 61%Ninja Penguins 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 37:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingCrystallis
LunaLowskill
DoomBOOM
Ember SpiritCopy
BatriderEkki
Primal BeastCorrupted
GyrocopterPuppey
TechiesAlexxo
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 67%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2