ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTRTeam Revenantsloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Winter Bearwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Revenants
No games played over 6 months.
Winter Bear
Vengeful Spirit
Stoic · 7 games
Rubick
Jeezy · 5 games
Tiny
Jeezy · 5 games
Clockwerk
Stoic · 4 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Jeezy · 4 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Stoic · 4 games
Lion
Jeezy · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
335 picks · 500 bans
Phoenix
291 picks · 430 bans
Lion
282 picks · 242 bans
Vengeful Spirit
273 picks · 192 bans
Grimstroke
263 picks · 454 bans
Pangolier
255 picks · 353 bans
Magnus
253 picks · 398 bans
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 733 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:41
Team Revenants 42%Winter Bear 58%
The model gave 58% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 26:34.
Game 2prediction correct9:29
Team Revenants 42%Winter Bear 58%
The model gave 58% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 12:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 58%
Series resultWinter Bear 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2