?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Brightloss 1:2
series probability
9%91%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Azure Raywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Bright

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
ButterflyEffect · 11 games
64%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Irving · 9 games
44%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Irving · 9 games
44%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Irving · 9 games
67%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
RedPanda · 6 games
33%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Undyne_ · 5 games
80%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
40%

Azure Ray

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 15 games
80%
Luna
Lunasignature
lou · 14 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 13 games
62%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 13 games
62%
Batrider
Batridersignature
天命 · 12 games
75%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Chalice · 12 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 10 games
80%
Lion
Lionsignature
fy · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
334 picks · 500 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
289 picks · 427 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
279 picks · 241 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
271 picks · 191 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
263 picks · 454 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
253 picks · 352 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
252 picks · 396 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 728 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 74%
Hero pool strength59% Azure Ray
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total91% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:29
Team Bright 24%Azure Ray 76%
The model gave 76% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Team Bright in 40:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
54% · 258 games50% · 92 games
Death ProphetOri
Death Prophet
Mars
MarsUlu
43% · 183 games54% · 97 games
Faceless Voidlou
Faceless Void
Viper
ViperIrving
61% · 50 games53% · 227 games
PangolierFaith_bian
Pangolier
Phoenix
PhoenixRedPanda
45% · 209 games48% · 198 games
Enchantress天命
Enchantress
46% · 86 games
Hoodwinkfy
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct22:38
Team Bright 24%Azure Ray 76%
The model gave 76% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 50:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
ZeusButterflyEffect
49% · 45 games54% · 69 games
Alchemistlou
Alchemist
Luna
LunaUlu
54% · 97 games44% · 54 games
Queen of PainOri
Queen of Pain
Tidehunter
TidehunterIrving
49% · 99 games51% · 145 games
TimbersawFaith_bian
Timbersaw
Pugna
PugnaRedPanda
54% · 139 games46% · 62 games
Hoodwinkfy
Hoodwink
45% · 50 games
Crystal Maiden天命
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct
Team Bright 9%Azure Ray 91%
The model gave 91% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray.
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 91%
Series resultAzure Ray 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3