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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:2
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Azure Raywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Lion
Lion
Kaka · 8 games
38%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Echo · 7 games
29%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Fantasy · 7 games
14%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Frisk · 6 games
67%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
poyoyo · 6 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Frisk · 6 games
67%
Wraith King
Wraith King
生死 · 6 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fantasy · 5 games
40%

Azure Ray

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 13 games
62%
Luna
Lunasignature
lou · 13 games
69%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 13 games
85%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Chalice · 12 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 12 games
58%
Batrider
Batridersignature
天命 · 11 games
73%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 10 games
80%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
天命 · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
330 picks · 494 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
284 picks · 426 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
275 picks · 240 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
268 picks · 182 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
262 picks · 452 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
251 picks · 349 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
248 picks · 721 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
244 picks · 393 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 73%
Hero pool strength63% Azure Ray
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total85% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:11
Team Aster 27%Azure Ray 73%
The model gave 73% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Team Aster in 32:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenpoyoyo
49% · 27 games55% · 126 games
Ursalou
Ursa
Puck
PuckEcho
47% · 131 game55% · 249 games
TimbersawFaith_bian
Timbersaw
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner生死
46% · 160 games47% · 369 games
Ember SpiritOri
Ember Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressSuper
57% · 258 games50% · 172 games
Lionfy
Lion
Rubick
RubickFantasy
46% · 562 games49% · 222 games
Phoenix天命
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct13:32
Team Aster 15%Azure Ray 85%
The model gave 85% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 44:01.
Game 3prediction correct16:36
Team Aster 27%Azure Ray 73%
The model gave 73% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 51:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linapoyoyo
47% · 124 games51% · 82 games
Lunalou
Luna
Puck
PuckEcho
49% · 163 games49% · 21 game
Outworld DestroyerOri
Outworld Destroyer
Abaddon
Abaddon生死
51% · 71 game50% · 138 games
MagnusFaith_bian
Magnus
Lion
LionSuper
53% · 154 games52% · 168 games
Batriderfy
Batrider
Bane
BaneFantasy
54% · 27 games45% · 130 games
Phoenix天命
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 85%
Series resultAzure Ray 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3