ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
G2 Invictus Gamingwin 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Asterloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
G2 Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team Aster
Lion
Frisk · 8 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Echo · 7 games
Dark Willowsignature
Frisk · 6 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
poyoyo · 6 games
Wraith King
生死 · 6 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
生死 · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
Fantasy · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Echo · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
330 picks · 492 bans
Phoenix
281 picks · 427 bans
Lion
275 picks · 238 bans
Vengeful Spirit
265 picks · 181 bans
Grimstroke
262 picks · 452 bans
Pangolier
251 picks · 350 bans
Nature's Prophet
248 picks · 719 bans
Magnus
242 picks · 391 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% G2 Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% G2 Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:14
G2 Invictus Gaming 75%Team Aster 25%
The model gave 75% on G2 Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 26:26.
Game 2prediction missed22:3
G2 Invictus Gaming 75%Team Aster 25%
The model gave 75% on G2 Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 22:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Invictus Gaming · 75%
Series resultG2 Invictus Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2