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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Silkloss 0:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
South Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Silk

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Hermit · 4 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
ShakaLord · 4 games
50%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
DM · 4 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
DM · 3 games
67%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
DaaD- · 3 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 2 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
ShakaLord · 2 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
d1smar · 2 games
0%

South Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ArzenT · 3 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
MonHty · 3 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ArzenT · 2 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Accel · 2 games
100%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ArzenT · 2 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Wij · 2 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Leostyle · 1 game
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Wij · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
330 picks · 489 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
280 picks · 427 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
273 picks · 238 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
264 picks · 179 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
261 picks · 451 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
251 picks · 350 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
248 picks · 718 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
241 picks · 391 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 45%
Hero pool strength55% South Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Silk
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:37
Silk 49%South Team 51%
The model gave 51% on South Team — the game was taken by South Team in 33:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingDM
52% · 108 games52% · 38 games
DawnbreakerArzenT
Dawnbreaker
Phoenix
PhoenixShakaLord
44% · 91 game46% · 56 games
LionMonHty
Lion
57% · 105 games
ClockwerkWij
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed
Silk 52%South Team 48%
The model gave 52% on Silk — the game was taken by South Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteSilk · 52%
Series resultSouth Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2