ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportswin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
WDWhite Dragonsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infinity Esports
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Kiri · 4 games
Rubick
Kiri · 3 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Mnz · 3 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Frank · 2 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Mnz · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Oscar · 2 games
Gyrocopter
Prada · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
Leostyle · 2 games
White Dragons
Kunkkaoften banned
Mr.Jeans · 5 games
Morphlingoften banned
hFn · 3 games
Tusk
Hyko · 3 games
Vengeful Spirit
Yor · 3 games
Windrangeroften banned
FCR · 3 games
Clockwerk
Hyko · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
Yor · 2 games
Hoodwink
Yor · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
330 picks · 489 bans
Phoenix
280 picks · 427 bans
Lion
273 picks · 238 bans
Vengeful Spirit
264 picks · 179 bans
Grimstroke
261 picks · 451 bans
Pangolier
251 picks · 350 bans
Nature's Prophet
248 picks · 718 bans
Magnus
241 picks · 391 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% Infinity Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Infinity Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:27
Infinity Esports 55%White Dragons 45%
The model gave 55% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 43:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingMnz
Naga SirenhFn
Dragon KnightPiPi
Ember SpiritMr.Jeans
DoomOscar
MagnusFCR
DisruptorMjz
UndyingYor
GrimstrokeGenek
HoodwinkHyko
Game 2prediction correct41:20
Infinity Esports 56%White Dragons 44%
The model gave 56% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 38:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritPiPi
UrsahFn
SpectreMnz
WindrangerMr.Jeans
MarsOscar
Primal BeastFCR
HoodwinkGenek
LionHyko
Vengeful SpiritMjz
BatriderYor
Model check result
Model favoriteInfinity Esports · 62%
Series resultInfinity Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2