?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Estar Backswin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Silkloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Estar Backs

Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Michael · 7 games
57%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Mnz · 3 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Michael · 3 games
67%
Spectre
Spectreoften banned
Mnz · 3 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
StingeR · 3 games
100%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
StingeR · 3 games
67%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Mnz · 2 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Mnz · 2 games
100%

Silk

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Hermit · 4 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
ShakaLord · 4 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
DM · 3 games
67%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
DaaD- · 3 games
0%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
DM · 3 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 2 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
ShakaLord · 2 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
d1smar · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
329 picks · 484 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
279 picks · 426 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
270 picks · 235 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
263 picks · 450 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
261 picks · 175 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
248 picks · 715 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
247 picks · 346 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
242 picks · 390 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 46%
Hero pool strength55% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:4
Estar Backs 61%Silk 39%
The model gave 61% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 22:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterParker
56% · 18 games52% · 91 game
SlarkDM
Slark
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFrank
58% · 104 games46% · 82 games
Crystal MaidenShakaLord
Crystal Maiden
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMichael
40% · 51 game
Game 2prediction correct43:19
Estar Backs 62%Silk 38%
The model gave 62% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 29:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarParker
57% · 3 games60% · 59 games
Faceless VoidDM
Faceless Void
Magnus
MagnusFrank
39% · 49 games57% · 15 games
GyrocopterShakaLord
Gyrocopter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMichael
41% · 22 games
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 73%
Series resultEstar Backs 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2