ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 3:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 3:2
nounsloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 13 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 12 games
Vengeful Spirit
Cr1t- · 12 games
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 9 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 8 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Fly · 8 games
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 8 games
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 8 games
nouns
Phoenixsignature
Fly · 14 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Fly · 14 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
YamSun · 12 games
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 11 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 10 games
Magnussignature
Gunnar · 10 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
YamSun · 9 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Gunnar · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
329 picks · 484 bans
Phoenix
279 picks · 426 bans
Lion
270 picks · 235 bans
Grimstroke
263 picks · 450 bans
Vengeful Spirit
261 picks · 175 bans
Nature's Prophet
248 picks · 715 bans
Pangolier
247 picks · 346 bans
Magnus
242 picks · 390 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 70%
Hero pool strength52% nouns
Head-to-head6 – 2
Model total58% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:27
Shopify Rebellion 54%nouns 46%
The model gave 54% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 50:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerArteezy
MorphlingYuma
PuckYopaj
TimbersawGunnar
ViperSabeRLight-
InvokerStormstormer
TinyThiolicor
EnchantressFly
35% · 105 games
HoodwinkLelis
Game 2prediction missed33:33
Shopify Rebellion 55%nouns 45%
The model gave 55% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by nouns in 47:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinYopaj
TerrorbladeYuma
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
PangolierStormstormer
Faceless VoidArteezy
Dragon KnightGunnar
TechiesThiolicor
EnchantressFly
46% · 127 games
LionLelis
Game 3prediction correct49:28
Shopify Rebellion 53%nouns 47%
The model gave 53% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 43:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageArteezy
Naga SirenYuma
TimbersawYopaj
PangolierStormstormer
MarsSabeRLight-
AbaddonGunnar
HoodwinkThiolicor
TechiesLelis
51% · 114 games
PugnaFly
Game 4prediction missed24:36
Shopify Rebellion 57%nouns 43%
The model gave 57% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by nouns in 43:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerArteezy
LunaYuma
Ember SpiritYopaj
PangolierStormstormer
MarsSabeRLight-
HoodwinkGunnar
LionThiolicor
PhoenixFly
55% · 230 games
TinyLelis
Game 5prediction correct38:20
Shopify Rebellion 56%nouns 44%
The model gave 56% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 43:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordArteezy
HoodwinkGunnar
PangolierYopaj
Ember SpiritStormstormer
SlardarSabeRLight-
SlarkYuma
LionThiolicor
TinyLelis
50% · 126 games
Vengeful SpiritFly
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 58%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5