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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ex-Heroicloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 33 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Panto · 25 games
60%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
rue · 23 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
rue · 22 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 21 game
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 20 games
70%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Collapse · 19 games
63%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 18 games
61%

ex-Heroic

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Thiolicor · 4 games
0%
Rubick
Rubick
Thiolicor · 4 games
25%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 4 games
25%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Yuma · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Thiolicor · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
TaiLung · 3 games
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Batyuk · 3 games
33%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
KJ · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
540 picks · 331 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
505 picks · 590 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 370 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
407 picks · 221 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
389 picks · 285 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
343 picks · 880 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
341 picks · 306 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
337 picks · 853 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 30%
Hero pool strength64% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:14
Team Spirit 76%ex-Heroic 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 32:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautYatoro
47% · 99 games55% · 237 games
UrsaYuma
Ursa
Zeus
ZeusLarl
54% · 18 games47% · 348 games
PangolierBatyuk
Pangolier
Slardar
SlardarCollapse
58% · 259 games47% · 351 game
SnapfireTaiLung
Snapfire
Hoodwink
Hoodwinknot me
53% · 480 games46% · 97 games
TechiesThiolicor
Techies
Ringmaster
Ringmasterrue
49% · 212 games38% · 35 games
Crystal MaidenKJ
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct0:0
Team Spirit 76%ex-Heroic 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 20:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierCollapse
44% · 352 games56% · 11 games
MeepoYuma
Meepo
Tiny
TinyYatoro
47% · 408 games54% · 307 games
BristlebackBatyuk
Bristleback
Slardar
SlardarLarl
58% · 304 games51% · 469 games
PuckTaiLung
Puck
Techies
Techiesnot me
51% · 110 games54% · 602 games
HoodwinkThiolicor
Hoodwink
Ringmaster
Ringmasterrue
46% · 269 games40% · 54 games
Crystal MaidenKJ
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 90%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2