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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Virtus.proloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 52 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 49 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 49 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 46 games
63%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 38 games
61%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 38 games
76%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Nightfall · 36 games
78%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 35 games
63%

Virtus.pro

Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 33 games
39%
Tiny
Tiny
Hellscream · 24 games
33%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Timado · 23 games
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
45%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
SabeRLight- · 21 game
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 20 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Abed · 20 games
55%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 20 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
540 picks · 331 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
505 picks · 590 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 370 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
407 picks · 221 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
389 picks · 285 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
343 picks · 880 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
341 picks · 306 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
337 picks · 853 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 44%
Hero pool strength64% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total88% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:32
Aurora Gaming 73%Virtus.pro 27%
The model gave 73% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 40:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerNightfall
45% · 30 games46% · 125 games
LifestealerTimado
Lifestealer
Puck
PuckMikoto
51% · 445 games51% · 355 games
Ember SpiritAbed
Ember Spirit
Axe
AxeWs
52% · 252 games53% · 305 games
SlardarSabeRLight-
Slardar
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
49% · 361 game55% · 457 games
HoodwinkHellscream
Hoodwink
Rubick
RubickMira
45% · 326 games50% · 172 games
SilencerFly
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed0:0
Aurora Gaming 76%Virtus.pro 24%
The model gave 76% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 21:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWs
52% · 334 games48% · 97 games
LunaTimado
Luna
Windranger
WindrangerNightfall
54% · 231 game48% · 313 games
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
Centaur Warrunner
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
46% · 377 games44% · 236 games
Void SpiritAbed
Void Spirit
Venomancer
VenomancerKaori
56% · 103 games52% · 396 games
HoodwinkHellscream
Hoodwink
Lion
LionMira
52% · 113 games49% · 116 games
SilencerFly
Silencer
Game 3prediction correct0:0
Aurora Gaming 74%Virtus.pro 26%
The model gave 74% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 25:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyNightfall
45% · 422 games56% · 247 games
TidehunterSabeRLight-
Tidehunter
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerWs
48% · 107 games51% · 149 games
KezTimado
Kez
Monkey King
Monkey KingMikoto
51% · 145 games50% · 480 games
Ember SpiritAbed
Ember Spirit
Warlock
WarlockKaori
50% · 262 games45% · 84 games
TechiesHellscream
Techies
Lion
LionMira
47% · 92 games56% · 68 games
VenomancerFly
Venomancer
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 88%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3