ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gamax Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Vengeful Spirit
Stoic · 7 games
Rubick
Jeezy · 5 games
Tiny
Jeezy · 5 games
Clockwerk
Stoic · 4 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Jeezy · 4 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Stoic · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
Jeezy · 3 games
Gamax Esports
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
dualrazee · 2 games
Clockwerk
Nagato · 1 game
Hoodwink
Nagato · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
dualrazee · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 1 game
Spectreoften banned
Alberkaaa · 1 game
Tusk
Nagato · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
329 picks · 479 bans
Phoenix
281 picks · 425 bans
Lion
264 picks · 233 bans
Grimstroke
263 picks · 447 bans
Vengeful Spirit
258 picks · 164 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 341 bans
Nature's Prophet
244 picks · 708 bans
Magnus
240 picks · 384 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% Winter Bear
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:18
Winter Bear 58%Gamax Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 36:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetStoic
Storm Spiritdualrazee
LionJeezy
HoodwinkNagato
Game 2prediction correct36:19
Winter Bear 54%Gamax Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 28:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Winter WyvernJeezy
Kunkkadualrazee
BatriderStoic
Crystal MaidenNagato
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 64%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2