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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 14 games
64%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Puppey · 12 games
75%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 12 games
42%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 10 games
70%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
BOOM · 9 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
MidOne · 9 games
78%
Lion
Lion
Ekki · 9 games
44%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Puppey · 8 games
50%

B8 Esports

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 20 games
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
65%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 15 games
53%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
StoneBank · 15 games
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Dendi · 14 games
86%
Lion
Lion
CTOMAHEH1 · 13 games
31%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Mary_y · 12 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
327 picks · 477 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
280 picks · 424 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
262 picks · 447 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
262 picks · 233 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
257 picks · 161 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
245 picks · 340 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
244 picks · 706 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
239 picks · 383 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:7
Team Secret 69%B8 Esports 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 34:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBOOM
42% · 114 games50% · 134 games
MorphlingFocus
Morphling
Razor
RazorCrystallis
52% · 88 games49% · 180 games
DoomStoneBank
Doom
Alchemist
AlchemistEkki
54% · 147 games56% · 99 games
PuckDendi
Puck
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPuppey
55% · 253 games42% · 100 games
PhoenixMary_y
Phoenix
49% · 89 games
LionCTOMAHEH1
Lion
Game 2prediction correct30:24
Team Secret 70%B8 Esports 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 42:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorCrystallis
46% · 64 games48% · 68 games
LunaFocus
Luna
Dark Seer
Dark SeerBOOM
52% · 135 games45% · 99 games
Queen of PainDendi
Queen of Pain
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPuppey
59% · 254 games48% · 19 games
SlardarStoneBank
Slardar
Doom
DoomEkki
47% · 244 games49% · 423 games
RubickCTOMAHEH1
Rubick
54% · 88 games
Centaur WarrunnerMary_y
Centaur Warrunner
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 81%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2