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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Winter Bearloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
KuroKy · 9 games
44%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
GH · 7 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
GH · 7 games
71%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
rmN- · 6 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
67%
Chen
Chensignature
KuroKy · 6 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ghost · 6 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KuroKy · 6 games
67%

Winter Bear

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Stoic · 7 games
43%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Nagato · 4 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 4 games
25%
Tiny
Tiny
Jeezy · 4 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Stoic · 4 games
25%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Stoic · 3 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Jeezy · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
320 picks · 475 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
279 picks · 422 bans
48%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
261 picks · 447 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
260 picks · 231 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
252 picks · 157 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
243 picks · 696 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
243 picks · 335 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
239 picks · 377 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total68% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:5
Nigma Galaxy 62%Winter Bear 38%
The model gave 62% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 27:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenMiracle-
52% · 66 games48% · 147 games
TinyJeezy
Tiny
Arc Warden
Arc WardenSumaiL
63% · 19 games44% · 262 games
RubickStoic
Rubick
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFbz
53% · 87 games
Enigma
EnigmaKuroKy
55% · 140 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMatthew
52% · 97 games
Game 2prediction missed16:19
Nigma Galaxy 58%Winter Bear 42%
The model gave 58% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 32:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordMiracle-
57% · 27 games49% · 180 games
ClockwerkStoic
Clockwerk
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSumaiL
48% · 54 games52% · 115 games
PugnaJeezy
Pugna
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFbz
45% · 57 games
Snapfire
SnapfireMatthew
38% · 129 games
Oracle
OracleKuroKy
61% · 28 games
Game 3prediction correct34:19
Nigma Galaxy 59%Winter Bear 41%
The model gave 59% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 46:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSumaiL
46% · 44 games49% · 183 games
Keeper of the LightJeezy
Keeper of the Light
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidMiracle-
52% · 94 games50% · 196 games
TuskStoic
Tusk
Primal Beast
Primal BeastFbz
48% · 105 games
Pugna
PugnaMatthew
49% · 81 game
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritKuroKy
55% · 55 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 68%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3