ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:0series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gamax Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PSG Quest
Earthshaker
No!ob · 15 games
Rubick
OmaR · 14 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
TA2000 · 13 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Kaori · 10 games
Phoenixoften banned
Kaori · 10 games
Shadow Demon
Kaori · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 9 games
Pucksignature
No!ob · 9 games
Gamax Esports
Hoodwink
Nagato · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
dualrazee · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 1 game
Spectreoften banned
Alberkaaa · 1 game
Tusk
Nagato · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
Nagato · 1 game
Weaveroften banned
Alberkaaa · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
320 picks · 475 bans
Phoenix
279 picks · 422 bans
Grimstroke
261 picks · 447 bans
Lion
260 picks · 231 bans
Vengeful Spirit
252 picks · 157 bans
Nature's Prophet
243 picks · 696 bans
Pangolier
243 picks · 335 bans
Magnus
239 picks · 377 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:8
PSG Quest 79%Gamax Esports 21%
The model gave 79% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 23:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierNo!ob
Keeper of the Lightdualrazee
WindrangerTA2000
Vengeful SpiritNagato
BeastmasterMalik
EnchantressKaori
LionOmaR
Game 2prediction correct29:17
PSG Quest 80%Gamax Esports 20%
The model gave 80% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 24:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MeepoTA2000
Outworld Destroyerdualrazee
Storm SpiritNo!ob
ClockwerkNagato
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
TechiesOmaR
PugnaKaori
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 94%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2