ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ninja Penguinsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Iosignature
Ceb · 9 games
Magnussignature
Ari · 9 games
Alchemistsignature
Yuragi · 8 games
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 7 games
Dark Seersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
Pucksignature
bzm · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Yuragi · 6 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Ceb · 6 games
Ninja Penguins
Primal Beastoften banned
Copy · 6 games
Vengeful Spirit
MiLAN · 5 games
Alchemist
Lowskill · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Corrupted · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Corrupted · 3 games
Meepooften banned
Copy · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Lowskill · 3 games
Weaveroften banned
MiLAN · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
320 picks · 469 bans
Phoenix
278 picks · 416 bans
Grimstroke
260 picks · 447 bans
Lion
259 picks · 227 bans
Vengeful Spirit
249 picks · 153 bans
Nature's Prophet
241 picks · 691 bans
Pangolier
241 picks · 334 bans
Magnus
235 picks · 376 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 65%
Hero pool strength58% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:24
OG 70%Ninja Penguins 30%
The model gave 70% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 53:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordYuragi
Naga SirenLowskill
Pangolierbzm
Death ProphetCorrupted
MarsWisper
Primal BeastCopy
BatriderCeb
PugnaAlexxo
HoodwinkAri
Game 2prediction correct41:8
OG 70%Ninja Penguins 30%
The model gave 70% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 19:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spiritbzm
LunaLowskill
AlchemistYuragi
MeepoCopy
Dark SeerWisper
MarsCorrupted
BatriderCeb
Vengeful SpiritAlexxo
MarciAri
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 83%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2