ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTRTeam Revenantswin 2:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ZWZolka Warriorsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Revenants
No games played over 6 months.
Zolka Warriors
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
320 picks · 467 bans
Phoenix
278 picks · 415 bans
Grimstroke
260 picks · 446 bans
Lion
259 picks · 224 bans
Vengeful Spirit
249 picks · 150 bans
Nature's Prophet
240 picks · 689 bans
Pangolier
240 picks · 333 bans
Magnus
234 picks · 374 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Team Revenants
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Team Revenants
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:13
Team Revenants 50%Zolka Warriors 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Revenants — the game was taken by Team Revenants in 28:12.
Game 2prediction missed17:53
Team Revenants 50%Zolka Warriors 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Revenants — the game was taken by Zolka Warriors in 39:38.
Game 3prediction correct40:18
Team Revenants 50%Zolka Warriors 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Revenants — the game was taken by Team Revenants in 29:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Revenants · 50%
Series resultTeam Revenants 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3