ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Go alongloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Phoenixsignature
y` · 8 games
Brewmastersignature
niu · 7 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
niu · 6 games
Muertasignature
pLAnet · 6 games
Spirit Breakersignature
NothingToSay · 6 games
Dark Willow
pLAnet · 5 games
Doomoften banned
niu · 5 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
pLAnet · 5 games
Go along
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Killa · 3 games
Weaveroften banned
TK · 3 games
Dark Willow
TK · 2 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Killa · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Killa · 2 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
TK · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
TK · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Killa · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
319 picks · 466 bans
Phoenix
278 picks · 412 bans
Grimstroke
260 picks · 446 bans
Lion
255 picks · 222 bans
Vengeful Spirit
245 picks · 150 bans
Pangolier
240 picks · 333 bans
Nature's Prophet
238 picks · 683 bans
Magnus
234 picks · 370 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total89% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:11
LGD Gaming 76%Go along 24%
The model gave 76% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 32:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weavershiro
ZeusStorm
Timbersawniu
PuckSetsu
LionPyw
Vengeful Spirity`
Game 2prediction correct23:14
LGD Gaming 76%Go along 24%
The model gave 76% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 23:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Sirenshiro
ViperStorm
Timbersawniu
Ember SpiritSetsu
Nature's Prophety`
LionPyw
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 89%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2