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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Rayloss 1:2
series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Brightwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 13 games
62%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Chalice · 12 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 12 games
83%
Luna
Lunasignature
lou · 11 games
73%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 11 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
天命 · 10 games
70%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 9 games
78%
Doom
Doomsignature
fy · 8 games
88%

Team Bright

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
phoenix · 9 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Irving · 8 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Irving · 7 games
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Irving · 6 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Undyne_ · 5 games
80%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
phoenix · 5 games
60%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
319 picks · 466 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
278 picks · 412 bans
48%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
260 picks · 446 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
255 picks · 222 bans
51%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
245 picks · 150 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
240 picks · 333 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
238 picks · 683 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
234 picks · 370 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 56%
Hero pool strength58% Azure Ray
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total94% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:32
Azure Ray 79%Team Bright 21%
The model gave 79% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Team Bright in 33:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaOri
47% · 108 games53% · 265 games
Nature's ProphetUlu
Nature's Prophet
Primal Beast
Primal BeastFaith_bian
50% · 334 games48% · 200 games
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
Ember Spirit
Lone Druid
Lone Druidlou
68% · 45 games45% · 98 games
TidehunterIrving
Tidehunter
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkfy
41% · 137 games54% · 182 games
ClockwerkRedPanda
Clockwerk
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit天命
49% · 121 game
Game 2prediction correct30:12
Azure Ray 80%Team Bright 20%
The model gave 80% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 31:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursalou
51% · 81 game47% · 157 games
LinaButterflyEffect
Lina
Huskar
HuskarOri
56% · 33 games52% · 438 games
Ember SpiritUlu
Ember Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
45% · 110 games51% · 182 games
TidehunterIrving
Tidehunter
Batrider
Batriderfy
50% · 285 games53% · 165 games
Shadow DemonRedPanda
Shadow Demon
Rubick
Rubick天命
48% · 433 games
Game 3prediction missed7:33
Azure Ray 79%Team Bright 21%
The model gave 79% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Team Bright in 32:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlinglou
50% · 182 games53% · 255 games
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
Storm Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritOri
49% · 82 games53% · 79 games
LinaUlu
Lina
Void Spirit
Void SpiritFaith_bian
44% · 104 games49% · 158 games
TidehunterIrving
Tidehunter
Undying
Undying天命
46% · 191 game50% · 176 games
TuskRedPanda
Tusk
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonfy
56% · 109 games
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 94%
Series resultTeam Bright 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3