ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TGthe goal of all life is deathloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Lion
Kaka · 9 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Echo · 7 games
Dark Willowsignature
Frisk · 6 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
poyoyo · 6 games
Phoenixoften banned
Fantasy · 6 games
Wraith King
生死 · 6 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
生死 · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
SumaiL · 5 games
the goal of all life is death
Ember Spiritoften banned
blessing · 2 games
Techies
omoxiloyi · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
blessing · 1 game
Tusk
omoxiloyi · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
318 picks · 464 bans
Phoenix
278 picks · 411 bans
Grimstroke
260 picks · 445 bans
Lion
251 picks · 221 bans
Vengeful Spirit
245 picks · 145 bans
Pangolier
239 picks · 333 bans
Nature's Prophet
238 picks · 679 bans
Magnus
233 picks · 367 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 67%
Hero pool strength63% the goal of all life is death
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:13
Team Aster 61%the goal of all life is death 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 32:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckEcho
Ember Spiritblessing
Morphlingpoyoyo
Tuskomoxiloyi
Doom生死
ZeusFantasy
Crystal MaidenSuper
Game 2prediction correct25:27
Team Aster 63%the goal of all life is death 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 43:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunapoyoyo
Pangolierblessing
Timbersaw生死
Lionomoxiloyi
Void SpiritEcho
BatriderFantasy
GyrocopterSuper
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 73%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2