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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Mars
Marsoften banned
JG · 10 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ken · 7 games
29%
Techies
Techiessignature
Bombi · 7 games
86%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
PlayHard · 6 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Bombi · 6 games
33%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
JG · 5 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ken · 5 games
60%

Talon Esports

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Akashi · 15 games
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Ponyo · 12 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Ponyo · 11 games
45%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Yowe · 10 games
70%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Akashi · 10 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Ponyo · 8 games
75%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Akashi · 8 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Akashi · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
318 picks · 464 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
278 picks · 411 bans
48%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
260 picks · 445 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
251 picks · 221 bans
51%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
245 picks · 145 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
239 picks · 333 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
238 picks · 679 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
233 picks · 367 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:34
Neon Esports 53%Talon Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 26:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawJG
46% · 132 games53% · 74 games
LunaAkashi
Luna
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritKen
53% · 129 games50% · 102 games
Dragon KnightCHYuan
Dragon Knight
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBombi
50% · 97 games54% · 76 games
EnigmaWs
Enigma
41% · 80 games
LionJhocam
Lion
58% · 26 games
BanePonyo
Bane
Game 2prediction missed28:25
Neon Esports 54%Talon Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 42:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritKen
57% · 125 games53% · 51 game
LunaAkashi
Luna
Mars
MarsJG
52% · 80 games48% · 88 games
Dragon KnightCHYuan
Dragon Knight
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBombi
46% · 104 games44% · 88 games
Centaur WarrunnerWs
Centaur Warrunner
47% · 66 games
HoodwinkJhocam
Hoodwink
58% · 16 games
BanePonyo
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 52%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2