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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounsloss 1:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Fly · 12 games
75%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Lelis · 12 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 11 games
82%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
YamSun · 11 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 10 games
80%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
YamSun · 9 games
78%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Gunnar · 9 games
44%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Gunnar · 9 games
67%

Shopify Rebellion

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 12 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 12 games
67%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Cr1t- · 12 games
58%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 9 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 8 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Fly · 8 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 8 games
63%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Arteezy · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
317 picks · 462 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
276 picks · 413 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
261 picks · 446 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
248 picks · 221 bans
51%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
245 picks · 144 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
238 picks · 331 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
235 picks · 681 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
233 picks · 365 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 76%
Hero pool strength54% nouns
Head-to-head2 – 5
Model total54% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:51
nouns 47%Shopify Rebellion 53%
The model gave 53% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 42:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinYuma
42% · 79 games59% · 159 games
Faceless VoidArteezy
Faceless Void
Magnus
MagnusGunnar
49% · 180 games47% · 316 games
Ember SpiritYopaj
Ember Spirit
Tiny
TinyStormstormer
48% · 263 games53% · 297 games
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
Beastmaster
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetLelis
51% · 233 games50% · 146 games
LionThiolicor
Lion
Phoenix
PhoenixFly
48% · 163 games
Game 2prediction missed39:20
nouns 48%Shopify Rebellion 52%
The model gave 52% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by nouns in 48:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageYuma
53% · 76 games49% · 145 games
MorphlingArteezy
Morphling
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainStormstormer
54% · 80 games47% · 124 games
PuckYopaj
Puck
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernGunnar
48% · 34 games52% · 109 games
MarsSabeRLight-
Mars
Tiny
TinyLelis
52% · 188 games48% · 126 games
LionThiolicor
Lion
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritFly
47% · 126 games
Game 3prediction correct21:41
nouns 49%Shopify Rebellion 51%
The model gave 51% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 36:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernGunnar
44% · 36 games58% · 117 games
LinaArteezy
Lina
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYuma
50% · 117 games43% · 43 games
AbaddonSabeRLight-
Abaddon
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainStormstormer
54% · 101 game54% · 327 games
PangolierYopaj
Pangolier
Phoenix
PhoenixFly
48% · 141 game45% · 132 games
LionThiolicor
Lion
Tiny
TinyLelis
50% · 224 games
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 54%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3