ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Bammysoywin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NNextNextloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bammysoy
Tusk
Husky · 8 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
BliNcc · 7 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mo13ei · 6 games
Vengeful Spirit
BliNcc · 6 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Husky · 6 games
Abaddonoften banned
Sammyboy · 5 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Moo · 5 games
Linaoften banned
Mo13ei · 5 games
NextNext
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
316 picks · 463 bans
Phoenix
278 picks · 414 bans
Grimstroke
263 picks · 446 bans
Lion
248 picks · 221 bans
Vengeful Spirit
243 picks · 144 bans
Pangolier
239 picks · 329 bans
Nature's Prophet
235 picks · 680 bans
Magnus
234 picks · 363 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Bammysoy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Bammysoy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:4
Bammysoy 54%NextNext 46%
The model gave 54% on Bammysoy — the game was taken by Bammysoy in 22:32.
Game 2prediction correct29:7
Bammysoy 54%NextNext 46%
The model gave 54% on Bammysoy — the game was taken by Bammysoy in 27:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteBammysoy · 54%
Series resultBammysoy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2